At this moment, Crude Oil is hitting a new all-time high of $139.01/bbl, and is now forecast to hit $150/bbl by the 4th of July.
John McCain has admitted that the war in Iraq was for Oil, and has proposed a long term (100 years?) U.S. military presence in Iraq, to protect our oil supplies, akin to the long term basing in Germany, Japan, and Korea to prevent Soviet expansionism during the Cold War.
OKay, I'll bite: We spent over 4,000 American lives and Two Trillion Dollars ($2,000,000,000,000) to gain access to the world's second or third largest supply of Petroleum, to protect the United States while the rest of the world goes to hell because of 'Peak Oil'. It may not be as moral a reason as removing a brutal dictator who used chemical weapons for genocide on his own people and his neighbors, but at least its a viable reason; you could understand his thinking if that's why Bush actually launched the war, even if you disagree with it.
So, how's all that working out for us? To paraphrase Clara Peller, "Where's the Oil?"
Its easy to acuse the Bush Administration of corruption in going to war for oil, of dishonesty in how the war was sold to the American public, and of misjudgement in how the war was prosecuted. Day by day, senior officials leave the government, even the inner sanctum of the White House itself, and reveal the facts as to exactly how corrupt, dishonest, and naive things have been at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
But, Where's the Oil?
The Bush Administration, and Republicans in Congress like Sen. Warner, and even GOP Presidential Candidate John McCain have promised more Renewable Energy, higher CAFE standards, more home-grown Biofuels, and more efficient hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicles to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. But all of these [long overdue] solutions take time to implement, and for now, we're told that we must continue to rely on imported Petroleum to meet our current needs. That's why we have two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf, and 185,000 troops on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, to protect our vital strategic national interests, ensuring guaranteed access to middle eastern oil supplies.
Alright then, Where's the Damn Oil??
We've expended more American soldiers than in the first Gulf War, Panama, Grenada, Haiti, Lebanon, Somalia, and Bosnia combined., Tens of thousands of young American men and woman have been permanently maimed, and tens of thousands more are now ruined psychologically. These were deemed necessary, in order to keep enough petroleum flowing from the middle east to the United States, to sustain us while the rest of the world, and other major powers, suffered their economic collapse as the effects of Peak Oil became apparent. Regardless of its moral implications, its at least a coherent geostrategic policy for the Bush Administration to have pursued.
So, Where's All That Fucking Oil???
We have coddled dozens of Arab Kings, Autocrats, and petty Dictators, who trample the civil and human rights of hundreds of millions of their muslim subjects; meanwhile siding with them, to restrain the only free, modern, industrial, western democracy in the region from taking the steps necessary to protect its own people from the rockets, kidnapping, and suicide bombings of barbaric terrorists. This was deemed necessary by the chattering classes in Washington, so as not to offend those who control the world's largest petroleum reserves. Recent U.S. policy in the Middle East may have been misguided, morally bereft, and poorly implemented for all the wrong reasons, but it generally seemed to make some sort of grand, strategic sense at the time, over decades, through both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Except that, now that its come time to cash in those chips, when 'push has come to shove' in world energy markets, and increasingly tight global supplies threaten economic disaster for those nations unable to obtain sufficient petroleum to support them through the transition to renewable biofuels, Bush and Cheney, those paragons of Big Oil expertise, have screwed the pooch entirely.
Awwwwwe! But I Want Cheaper Oil!
As we know from the '70s price run-up, the market really does adapt; consumption plummeted after the oil shocks of the period, and both cars and industry became more efficient, and demand took a decade to recover. Even Saudi oil economists have said, in retrospect, that the embargo was the worst mistake they ever made, because it changed consumer behavior, and permanently compromised demand for their output. The same is happening now. Even if you were going to exploit the Iraqi oil - lets say that Bush and Cheney have big plans as wildcatters in Kirkuk after they leave office - the situation is FUBAR to an extent that even that scenario is unlikely to make financial sense in the emerging green technology environment.
By the time that they could now bring new Iraqi production online, say, three to five years after they re-enter the private sector, new American automakers will be retailing high tech cars in the 100 MPG to 400 MPG range, while fourth-generation, feedstock-free ("freedstock") biofuels, grown in the desert with algae from nothing but air, sunshine, and seawater, will yield hundreds of thousands of gallons [of biofuels] per acre per year (vs. 600 gals/acre/year max for Corn/Soybeans).
The U.S. transition to making better cars than Detroit, and burning renewable domestic fuels will be a difficult and expensive one. It might have been cushioned with a dedicated flow of new Iraqi oil to U.S. refineries, accompanied by a realistic 'green technology' policy with respect to energy. But no. There is no Iraqi oil, at least not coming out of the ground, as yet. They couldnt even get that right. The Bush Administration has even mucked up what you'd expect ex- 'Oil Barons' to be good at. In all likelihood, Chinese oil companies will move in to exploit the vast untapped Iraqi reserves - and take it back to China - once we've fled with our tail between our legs.
If two former oil industry executives, Bush and Cheney, cant make work the sole legitimate justification for having war (or, even, 'a sustained presence') in Iraq, exactly what chance does Sen. McCain have of doing so, and why should we even let him try?